the road to Brisbane 2032

what I'm chasing

Seven years of running, two of them serious. 100km weeks building toward 120. A 3:51 last year off pure volume, no event-specific training. These are the numbers between where I am and where I want to get.
Current PB
3:51
Set in 2025, without specialized 1500m-specific training.
2026 target
3:45
First year of event-specific work under Chris Sauer.
Argentine record
3:36
Federico Bruno, Castellón 2021. The first landmark.
Olympic standard
~3:33
Estimated Brisbane 2032 entry standard, based on recent cycles.
3:51 PB ~3:33 Olympic
15 seconds to the record 18 seconds to the Olympics

goal by goal, honestly

Tap each goal to expand the full assessment. No sugarcoating.
3:45 this year likely

I ran 3:51 off pure aerobic volume, no 1500m-specific work at all. Once Chris layers in 400 reps, race-pace sessions, and lactate tolerance work, 6 seconds is well within reach. Of all my goals, this is the one I'm most confident about.

Argentine record (3:36) plausible

Multi-year project. I'm 23, 1500m runners peak around 27-30, so the window lines up. I've built a big aerobic engine with very little speed work, which means there's a lot of upside still sitting in the tank once I actually train the event. 3:36 needs ~56-57 second laps, held. I'll need sub-50 400m speed and fast European fields with rabbits to get there.

Brisbane 2032 Olympics long shot

18 seconds is a lot. But I'll be 29 in 2032, prime middle-distance age, and competing for Argentina rather than South Africa shifts things considerably. Argentina doesn't have a deep 1500m field. If I hold the national record and rank high enough, I could be their guy. The path is through the entry standard or rankings, not a brutal national trial. Whether my ceiling is 3:36 or 3:30 is a question nobody can answer yet... not until I have 3-4 years of proper speed and endurance work behind me.

Trail pro after track strong

Probably the most viable long-term goal of the lot. Runners who come from high-volume track backgrounds tend to do very well when they transition to trail. If I'm already at 115km weeks at 23 and my body is holding up, the durability is there. The UTCT 23km each November keeps the trail-specific work ticking alongside the track season.

yearly rhythm

Double periodisation with two track peaks and one trail target. Tap each block to see the details.
Dec — Apr Build #1 + SA
Rest
May — Aug Build #2 + Europe
Rest
Sep — Nov Trail + UTCT
Rest
Build #1 + SA season
Aerobic base into developmental racing. Use SA track season as a "process peak"... I'm not chasing my PB here. Race sharp but not fully tapered. A 3:47 in March off a solid build tells me a lot about where June might land. Test fitness, practice race tactics, build World Athletics ranking points.

what I sacrifice

The training side is the easier part. The life rearrangement is where most people decide whether they actually want it.
◑
Sleep becomes law
Not "I try to get 8 hours"... more like I build my social life around being in bed by 9:30-10pm most nights. Every late one is a training session my body can't fully absorb.
◇
Alcohol basically goes
The occasional beer is fine. Regular drinking hits recovery, suppresses testosterone, wrecks sleep. Most runners who make the jump from good to elite quietly stop, and I'll need to do the same.
◌
Social life narrows
Narrows, not disappears. I'll miss things. Braais, late dinners, spontaneous trips. The people around me either get on board or start to feel like friction.
△
Diet becomes fuel
At 115km weeks the margin for error is thin. Enough carbs to cover volume, enough protein to rebuild, enough iron. Underfuelling at my mileage is the fastest route to injury.
▫
Career takes second
Runners who make Olympic jumps almost always have a stretch where running is the primary thing and everything else fits around it. RIFT and ATAB are flexible, but I need to be honest about what comes first.
◈
Racing requires Europe
Cape Town won't give me fast 1500m fields. I'll need the Continental Tour circuit, June through September. Travel, expense, agents, time away from home.

year by year

Aerobic adaptations take 4-7 years of consistent high-volume work to fully mature. I'm right in the window where they start compounding. These are the checkpoints.
2026 — age 23
Target: 3:45
That's the goal, full stop. A 6-second PB in year one of proper training is already a strong signal.
2027 — age 24
Target: 3:42 → 3:40
A full year of speed and race-specific work behind me, first European races done, and I know what 1500m training actually feels like. This is where the bigger drop comes.
2028 — age 25
Target: 3:39 → 3:37
Approaching Argentine record range.
2029 — age 26
Target: 3:37 → 3:36
Record territory. CADA relationship established.
2030 – 31 — age 27–28
Target: 3:35 → 3:33
Olympic qualifying range. Peak years.
2032 — age 29
Brisbane
Prime middle-distance age. If the work has been done, this is where it lands.
2033+ — age 30+
Trail transition
The aerobic engine I've built becomes my competitive advantage on mountain terrain. Runners who come from high-volume track backgrounds tend to go deep in trail. That's the plan.